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The UAH dataset shows a Pause almost as long as the RSS dataset. The least-squares linear-regression trend on the mean of the GISS, Had CRUT4 and NCDC terrestrial monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly datasets shows global warming at a rate equivalent to 1.1 C° per century during the period of the Pause from January 1997 to September 2015.However, the much-altered surface tamperature datasets show a small warming rate (Fig. Bearing in mind that one-third of the 2.4 W m radiative forcing from all manmade sources since 1750 has occurred during the period of the Pause, a warming rate equivalent to little more than 1 C°/century is not exactly alarming. Merely because there has been little or no warming in recent decades, one may not draw the conclusion that warming has ended forever.The fact of a long Pause is an indication of the widening discrepancy between prediction and reality in the temperature record.The satellite datasets are arguably less unreliable than other datasets in that they show the 1998 Great El Niño more clearly than all other datasets.
However, if there is a following la Niña, as there often is, the Pause may return at some time from the end of next year onward.Now, almost three years later, the Pause is almost three years longer.It is worth understanding just how surprised the modelers ought to be by the persistence of the Pause.On the questioners’ side it is rational: on the believers’ side it is a matter of increasingly blind faith.The New Superstition is no Technical note Our latest topical graph shows the least-squares linear-regression trend on the RSS satellite monthly global mean lower-troposphere dataset for as far back as it is possible to go and still find a zero trend.